SEC action pits Gators against Vols

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/11/2012 - Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The eighth-ranked Florida Gators return to Gainesville looking to regain their swagger, as they play host to the Tennessee Volunteers in SEC action at the O'Connell Center.

Billy Donovan's Gators headed into this week with a seven-game win streak and a measuring stick on the docket with Tuesday's road game at top-ranked Kentucky. Unfortunately for Florida, it didn't quite measure up in a 78-58 loss to the Wildcats. Still, at 7-2 in conference play, the Gators are one of a few teams still within striking distance of Kentucky in the standings.

Cuonzo Martin's first season in Knoxville has certainly come with its ups and downs thus far. The team is an even 12-12 overall and one game under .500 in league play at 4-5. The real problem has come on the road, where Tennessee is still winless at 0-7. The Vols do enter this contest with a minor two-game win streak in tow, topping Georgia (73-62) and most recently South Carolina (69-57) at Thompson-Boling Arena.

The Volunteers hold a 70-52 advantage in the all-time series. Florida had won four straight over Tennessee coming into this season, but it is the Volunteers seeking the regular-season sweep after opening SEC play with a 67-56 win over the Gators in Knoxville on January 7th.

The Volunteers have struggled with offensive consistency this season, as the numbers, like their overall record, are bland at best. Tennessee comes into this contest averaging a modest 68.6 ppg, doing so on .440 shooting. Guard Trae Golden is the team leader in the scoring column, but his 13.0 ppg isn't exactly the kind of numbers that scare many opponents. He also doubles as the team's primary distributor, doling out 4.6 apg. Jeronne Maymon (11.9 ppg, 7.9 rpg) has provided a presence in the paint and the recent addition of freshman Jarnell Stokes (8.9 ppg. 7.9 rpg) to the lineup has certainly helped take some of the low post burden off of Maymon's shoulders. However, Stokes is currently sidelined with a wrist injury.

Junior Skylar McBee made his presence felt in the team's 12-point win over South Carolina this week, as he hit four three-pointers en route to a career- high 18 points. Golden poured in 14 points in support, while Maymon added 12. Kenny Hall scored just four points in the win, but did grab 10 rebounds and block three shots. The Vols shot an impressive 50 percent from the floor, including 10-of-20 from beyond the arc, while holding South Carolina to a mere 33.9 percent effort.

Tennessee will be hard-pressed to match Florida's offensive firepower, especially after a poor showing in Lexington this week. The team managed a mere 58 points in the loss to the Wildcats, well below its current season averaging of 79.2 ppg. The Gators did manage to have three players finish in double figures in the lopsided loss, led by Kenny Boynton's 18 points. Fellow guard Bradley Beal added 14 points, while center Patric Young chipped in with 12.

The scoring output was certainly an anomaly and not the norm, as UF's scoring depth is vast, with all five starters averaging double digits. Boynton is the go-to-guy at the offensive end, averaging a hefty 17.6 ppg, fueled by his .440 accuracy from three-point range (81-of-184). Beal (14.3 ppg) and Erving Walker (12.1 ppg) add to the perimeter assault, with Walker pacing the team with almost five assists per game. Young (10.8 ppg, 6.4 rpg) is the top option up front, with forward Erik Murphy (10.0 ppg) providing a scoring touch both inside and out.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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